http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2010/01/rubber-glove-stocks-time-to-take-profit.html

http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2009/12/topglove-reaching-for-its-all-time-high.html

I can’t answer the question when the installed capacity will exceed demand. Nobody knows. The huge jump in capacity over the next 12 months looks to me to be enough to tip the balance. Once you have crossed the tipping point, the competitive forces would come into play. If raw material costs were to rise at that time, you would have a margin squeeze.

The question to ponder is whether you should hang on until you see this problem or should you bail out before the problem arises? Smart moneys, with big position, normally act ahead of the perceived problem for the simple reason that it is very hard to sell big position once the market has turned against you. If you have a smaller position, you have the luxury of staying until the signs are clearer.

先講講公司的基礎。。。
2009里3個季度的表現： (好的)
29% of profit margin (net profit vs revenue)
1.93 NTA (凈有形資產) vs 1.24 的現股價
凈負債是凈資產的0.3倍 (asset vs liabilities)
凈流動負債也是凈流動資產的0.3倍 (current assets vs liabilities)
有constant 的股息派發記錄
3Q的盈利是0.1152 或 4Q Forecast 0.154 (若Q1+Q2+Q3x2), PE是大概8倍。

那麼好， 爲什麽我還是把它剔除呢?
原因1：公司 going downtrend, 無論revenue, net profit 和 profit margin 都正走下坡。。。
Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 (1Q Forecast)
Revenue 277mil 218mil 194mil
Net Profit 118mil 91mil 54mil
EPS 0.3329 0.2589 0.154
Margin 43% 42% 28%

原因2：房地產的收入是一次性的， 不能用前一年度的業績做比較。
原因3：房地產需要大的地皮庫存，才可以長期維持成長。。。 KSL是小公司， 很難跟大地產商爭一日之長短。 好像IJM, SIME DARBY. IOIPROP (已私有化)。。。

若你不是很計較高回酬高成長的話， KSL也許還可以賺到一個30%-50%。。。 但很難翻倍。。。我在三月時0.60買進的考量， 因素已經改變， 所以，我以1.20賣出而不再持有。。。

無論如何， 買與不買， 是你的決定。。。 Good luck.